Prediction of shelter needs based on simulation results of evacuees choosing evacuation facilities due to a potential tsunami earthquake in Padang, Indonesia

Abstract Tsunami disasters are predicted to occur in the West Sumatra region due earthquakes. To deal with tsunami hazard that will hit Padang City, government has built several shelters and evacuation routes. At present, number of facilities is still limited, this cause community vulnerability facing hazards. overcome vulnerable condition, it necessary determine needed accommodate evacuees. In study, determination required done by simulating evacuees who choose during evacuation. The model evacuee generation from 5 tsunami-prone zones City was created using a linear regression method. for selecting type facility each zone uses binary logit model. Prediction shelter needs carried out minimum, normal maximum conditions may occur. From simulation results, as means obtained. minimum 6 units, 23 units 50 units.